Sunday, June 1, 2014
| 19:00 ~ 21:00 | Welcome Reception / Dinner [Orchid Room, 2F, Westin Chosun Seoul] |
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Monday, June 2, 2014
| 8:30 ~ 9:00 | Registration, Coffee and Pastry |
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Opening Session
9:00 ~ 9:05 |
Ten-Year Anniversary Video |
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9:05 ~ 9:10 |
Opening Address |
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| Juyeol Lee | Governor, Bank of Korea | |
9:10 ~ 10:20 |
Keynote Speeches |
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Rare Macroeconomic Disasters and the Global Financial Crisis |
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| Robert Barro | Professor, Harvard University | |
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The Second Phase of Global Liquidity |
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| Hyun Song Shin | Chief Economist, BIS | |
10:20 ~ 10:40 |
Coffee Break |
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Session 1
| 10:40 ~ 12:20 | Assessing the Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Growth Potential |
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| This session will evaluate the multi-dimensional impacts of the GFC on potential growth and prospective growth after the Great Recession for advanced and emerging-market economies. On the real front, retrenched investment after the GFC could have been driven by various causes (e.g., credit crunch, heightened uncertainties, or corrective adjustments). To restore growth potential, do we need to normalize investment after the GFC—searching for a new norm of investment rates? On the monetary and fiscal fronts, speakers will review the effects of debt and monetary overhangs on potential growth to harmonize long-run fiscal consolidation and central bank balance sheets for sustainable growth. How can policymakers cope with the overall long-term effects on global potential growth of global liquidity waves stemming from shifts in unconventional monetary policy? This session may in addition review, and look ahead to, ensuing structural reforms and productivity enhancement—global financial regulatory reforms, reassessing the role of finance, and implications for long-run growth. | ||
| Moderator | Narayana Kocherlakota |
President, FRB of Minneapolis |
| Speakers | The Safety Trap | |
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Professor, MIT |
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| The Effect of the Global Financial Crisis on OECD Potential Output | ||
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Head of Division, OECD |
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| Discussants |
Executive Vice President, FRB of New York |
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Deputy Director, IMF |
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Executive Coordinator, Bank of Spain |
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| 12:20 ~ 13:50 | Luncheon [Songhyun Restaurant, 15F, BOK] | |
Session 2
| 14:00 ~ 15:30 |
Demographic Changes and Growth Potential |
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| This session will suggest links between demographic factors and growth potential in light of the roles of labor participation, human capital, and labor market flexibility; and may discuss challenges to resource allocation, asset markets, and dynamic efficiency. Specifically, how can interactions between social security systems and household choices—which influence demographic factors such as family formation, fertility, and human capital formation—affect savings rates and thus long-run growth? Speakers will discuss buffering against demographic changes for robust growth, e.g., promoting labor participation, enhancing matching in the labor markets with demographic shifts, and rebalancing sectorial savings. What are cross-border challenges to, and opportunities for, open-economy growth potential, given the differential paces of population aging across countries? How can macroeconomic policy and institutional initiatives embrace the beehive-shaped population structure? Against these backdrops, discussions on proactive adjustments to temper the adverse effects of population aging on growth potential will be a further focus. | ||
| Moderator | Daniel G. Sullivan |
Executive Vice President, FRB of Chicago |
| Speakers | Viewing Korea’s Economic Prospects Through a Demographic Lens | |
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Professor, Harvard University |
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| Macroeconomics of Aging in Europe: Reforms, international diversification and behavioral reactions | ||
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Director, Max Planck Institute |
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| Discussants |
Professor, University of Rochester and Yonsei University |
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Deputy Director-General, Bank of Korea |
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| 15:30 ~ 16:00 | Coffee Break |
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Session 3
| 16:00 ~ 17:30 |
Facing a Global Growth Stall? Searching for Macro-Inventions |
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| How can growth be generated in an environment where wide-scope deleveraging owing to fiscal and monetary overhangs is needed for sustainable growth? This session will review long-term growth cycles in the global world à la Robert Gordon (2012): the roles of innovative leaders and followers. As a global growth stall headwinds, speakers may discuss convex combinations of micro pinnacles for macro marching on a robust global growth path; and assess the impacts of macro-economic policies on dynamic efficiencies in resource allocation across generations and countries. Broadening the basis of macro-micro linkages to jump into the blue ocean of growth could be a twofold endeavor. The first pertains to micro initiatives such as accelerating the global diffusion of technological innovations—globally inclusive growth. The second pertains to macro initiatives such as innovations in financial structure to fertilize the embryo of future growth—a new dimension in credit policy. | ||
| Moderator | Barry Eichengreen |
Professor, University of California, Berkeley |
| Speakers | Is Technological Progress a Thing of the Past? | |
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Professor, Northwestern University |
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| The Inexorable Forces Reducing Future U. S. Economic Growth | ||
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Professor, Northwestern University |
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| Discussants |
Professor, Washington University in St. Louis |
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Vice President, FRB of San Francisco |
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| 18:40 ~ 20:30 |
Conference Dinner [Lilac Room, 2F, Westin Chosun Seoul] |
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| Dinner(Keynote)Speech | Sustaining the Momentum: Vigilance and Reforms | |
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Director, IMF |
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Tuesday, June 3, 2014
| 8:30 ~ 9:00 | Coffee and Pastry |
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Session 4
| 9:00 ~ 10:30 |
Rebalancing External- and Internal-Demand Driven Growth Spurts to Invigorate Growth Potential |
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| What are the implications of rebalancing external and domestic demand for global imbalances and long-run growth—especially for countries seeking robust prosperity with balanced-growth strategies? Speakers will present views on changing international trade landscape and challenges to small open economies—given incomplete global financial markets, the high degrees of (household or government) indebtedness, limited policy space, etc. This session will offer discussions on balancing growth and employment bases between the manufacturing and service sectors; and may cover harmonizing cross-border heterogeneity in endowments and productivity for long-term prosperity. It will also attempt to evaluate factors contributing to national imbalances (such as exchange rates, factor price distortions, and financial sector weaknesses); and assess policy and institutional measures for invigorating domestic demand-driven growth (such as exchange rate policy, wage policy and labor-market flexibility enhancement, and financial architecture and credit market reforms). | ||
| Moderator | Jun Il Kim |
Deputy Governor, Bank of Korea |
| Speakers | Asia’s Rebalancing and Growth | |
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Professor, Korea University |
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| Rebalancing to Invigorate Growth Potential in China | ||
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Senior Research Fellow, Peterson Institute |
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| Discussants |
Professor, Stanford University |
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Professor, Korea University |
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| 10:30 ~ 11:00 |
Coffee Break |
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Session 5
| 11:00 ~ 12:30 |
Panel Discussion – Rethinking Policy Options for Strengthening Growth Potential |
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| Fragile trinity?—the evolution of the GFC suggests that policy, institutions, and markets are prone to failures in ensuring robust growth and financial stability. How can we ensure that the trinity is resilient to financial innovations and global shocks? This session will motivate rethinking policy options for strengthening growth potential. It will discuss the overhaul of the macro-policy framework for future growth: what macroeconomic policies can and cannot do to invigorate growth potential, new dimensions of monetary and credit policies for growth, and institutional build-ups to catch up with evolving macro-financial linkages—through enhancing financial structure, market development, and financial integration. Are countries promoting globally inclusive growth—expediting cross-border market development and technical-financial diffusions through FTAs and financial integration? Finally, prospective policy roles in advanced and emerging-market economies, and their policy cooperation for harmonized global growth will be discussed. | ||
| Moderator | Thomas J. Sargent |
Professor, New York University |
| Panelists | Kikuo Iwata |
Deputy Governor, Bank of Japan |
Jong-Won Yoon |
Executive Director, IMF |
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Barry Eichengreen |
Professor, University of California, Berkeley |
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Nathan Sussman |
Director and Member of Monetary Committee, Bank of Israel |
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Woon Gyu Choi |
Deputy Governor and Director General, Bank of Korea |
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| 12:30 ~ 14:00 | Farewell Luncheon [Songhyun Restaurant, 15F, BOK] | |
