The Inflationary Impact of Intensifying Extreme Weather : Evidence on Persistence and Nonlinearity [BOK Issue Note 2025-25]

구분
Macro Economy
등록일
2025.10.30
조회수
1936
키워드
Climate Change Natural Disaster Extreme Weather Inflation Physical Risk
등록자
Jung-In Yeon
담당부서
Climate Risk Analysis Team(02-750-6898)

This study analyzes how intensifying extreme weather—such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall—affects consumer price inflation in Korea. Using regional monthly panel data for 1990–2025 and a panel local projection approach, weather shocks—defined as deviations of daily maximum temperature and maximum one-day precipitation from their long-term climatological averages—are found to exert statistically significant and persistent upward pressures on CPI inflation. High-temperature shocks have longer-lasting effects than precipitation shocks, and their impacts rise nonlinearly when exceeding the top 5 percent extreme threshold. By CPI component, goods prices—especially agricultural, livestock, and fishery products—respond most strongly, while service prices increase with heat but decline with heavy rainfall. Incorporating Korea Meteorological Administration projections, inflationary pressures under a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) could be 1.5–2 times higher by 2100. These results highlight extreme weather as a growing risk to price stability and call for stronger adaptation investment and integration of climate risks into macroeconomic and monetary policy frameworks.

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