① Public employment—including senior employment programs and public‑administration employees— have increased steadily over the past several years.

② However, as public employment accounts for a larger share of total employment, it becomes more difficult to assess underlying labor market conditions—and, by extension, overall economic conditions—on the basis of aggregate employment alone.

③ The results suggest that private employment captures cyclical macroeconomic fluctuations more accurately than total employment and is more consistent with changes in broader labor market conditions, and it improves forecasts of growth and inflation relative to forecasts based on total employment.

④ The estimates indicate that private employment has remained subdued since 2024, although the weakness eased in Q3 of 2025 as consumption recovered.

⑤ Private employment is projected to improve in 2026 relative to 2025. The private employment gap—deviation of actual employment from trend—is expected to narrow markedly, from -80,000 in 2025 to -20,000 in 2026.