저자: 최상엽(연세대), 이정혁(한국은행)

<요약>

How can we distinguish good housing booms from bad ones? We develop a high-frequency classification of local housing-market episodes that separates demand-dominant movements from flow-supply-dominant movements and then distinguishes, within demand-dominant episodes, between housing-service-dominant and valuation-dominant booms. We implement the framework using Korea’s Jeonse system—a lump-sum lease arrangement that provides a market-based, capitalized benchmark for current housing-service value—together with monthly district-level data. Housing-service-dominant booms are followed by higher consumption, employment, and output, whereas valuation-dominant booms are followed by weaker economic activity. Using borrower-level panel data covering 710,000 borrowers per quarter, we show that valuation-dominant episodes are associated with greater household borrowing and lower expenditure. The expenditure decline is larger among borrowers with faster prior debt growth, a pattern consistent with a household balance-sheet channel.