저자: 김지현(성균관대), 곽보름(한국은행)

<요약>

This study investigates the economic effects of climate change on small open economies within a broader global context, using South Korea as a case study. We apply advanced econometric techniques to analyze high-dimensional functional data and employ an Instrumental Factor Model to construct a Global Climate Index that captures global climate dynamics. Additionally, we develop localized seasonal weather indices for South Korea. An aggregated VAR framework is employed to estimate the dynamic effects of the constructed climate index on key macroeconomic variables in South Korea. Global temperature and economic shocks are identified to reveal how global temperature changes affect countries with different income levels and how these effects propagate to South Korea’s economy. Our findings indicate that global temperature shocks have significantly negative and persistent effects on GDP worldwide. In contrast, local weather variations in South Korea, though volatile, exert minimal direct influence on domestic GDP and CPI. The paper contributes to climate-economy research by offering a scalable methodological framework capable of handling large datasets and complex interactions. It provides important insights for policymakers, emphasizing the need for international cooperation and sustainable strategies to mitigate the economic risks of climate change.