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[Vol.26 No.3] Estimating a Precautionary Saving Motive under Consumption Uncertainty

Economic Research Institute (82-2-759-5490) 2020.09.29 1375

Authour: Jin-tae Hwang(Daegu Univ.), Sung-min Kim(Kyungpook National Univ.)

<Abstract>

Using data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey over the period 1994-2016, we estimate the coefficient of relative prudence in order to capture precautionary saving motive. To do this, we adopt a cohort approach, where we transform such microdata into sample cohort means. Together with initial income involving liquidity constraint, we estimate the relative prudence derived from the Euler equation. The two-stage least-squares (2SLS) between estimate of it obtained from the cohort panel data analysis is too small for the existence of precautionary saving motive, as in previous studies, while the 2SLS random effects estimate is so reasonable. Moreover, the liquidity-constrained cohorts tend to be more sensitive to uncertainty, relative to the unconstrained ones.


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