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Recent Economic Developments (October 2023)

Research Department (02-759-4202) 2023.10.19 2225

Summary

 

The global economy has continued to slow among differentiated growth trends across countries, and the uncertainty related to the Israel-Hamas conflict has increased.

 

Domestic economic growth is expected to continue its modest improvement, thanks to an easing of sluggishness in exports despite a slower recovery in consumption. Accordingly, the economic growth in this year is expected to be broadly in line with the August forecast of 1.4%.

 

Going forward, the uncertainties surrounding the growth path have increased due to the heightened geopolitical risks and prolonged monetary tightening in major economies.

 

CPI inflation is expected to resume a moderate slow down as core inflation decelerates due to weaker demand-side inflationary pressures and base effects, but upside risks have increased somewhat due to the recent Israel-Hamas conflict.

 

There remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding the future path of inflation, including global oil prices, exchange rates, and economic situations at home and abroad.

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