▣Bank of Korea forecasts GDP growth at 2.2% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025.
■ The growth forecasts for this year and next year have been revised downward by 0.2%p, respectively, in light of slower-than-expected export growth due to intensifying competition with major countries in key industries and strengthening trade protectionism, amid domestic demand recovering at a moderate pace.
■ The future path of growth is expected to be significantly influenced by the global trade environment, trends in semiconductor exports, and the pace of recovery in domestic demand.
▣ CPI inflation is projected to be at 1.9% in 2025.
■ The forecast, compared to the previous outlook in August, has been revised downward by 0.2%p due to lower oil prices and limited demand-side pressures.
■ Uncertainty regarding geopolitical risks, exchange rate movements, and economic conditions at home and abroad persists.