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BOK Issue Note How Will Consumption Evolve in Regions Benefiting from the Semiconductor Boom?: Spillover Effects Examined Through Regional Microdata [BOK Issue Note 2026-20] As the semiconductor industry sustains an unprecedented boom, expectations for its broader economic spillover effects are also rising. Indeed, Gross Domestic Income (GDI) has recorded high double-digit growth, driven by improved terms of trade amid a sharp rise in semiconductor export prices, and domestic semiconductor firms have been expanding wages and investment on the back of higher operating profits. For the Korean economy to sustain robust growth momentum going forward, this growth in the IT sector needs to spread broadly through the domestic economy, and assessing this spread requires examining whether rising income is translating into higher spending—the consumption channel. Accordingly, this paper uses regional microdata to analyze the consumption spillover effect, focusing on regions directly benefiting from the semiconductor boom, such as Icheon, Hwaseong, and Cheongju. 2026. 08. 31
BOK Issue Note What Makes the Current Terms-of-Trade Improvement Different? Real-Economy Spillovers from the Semiconductor Upturn [BOK Issue Note 2026-16] The Korean economy recorded strong GDP growth of 3.8% year on year in the first quarter of this year, supported by the semiconductor upturn. At the same time, rising semiconductor prices led to a marked improvement in the terms of trade, lifting gross domestic income (GDI) by 13.2%, far outpacing GDP growth. The increase in GDI is expected to support a recovery in domestic demand by strengthening household purchasing power and firms’ capacity to invest. In particular, if global semiconductor demand remains strong and the improvement in the terms of trade—and the resulting rise in GDI—persists for an extended period, its macroeconomic spillovers could differ from those observed in the past. This paper compares the characteristics of the current terms-of-trade improvement and its spillovers to domestic demand with past episodes, and draws policy implications. 2026. 07. 19
BOK Issue Note The Effects of Overseas Investment and Investment Income on the Exchange Rate [BOK Issue Note 2026-15] 1. Korea’s overseas investment has increased sharply in recent years, led by portfolio investment. In 2025, direct investment declined to USD 41.2 billion from USD 49.7 billion in 2024, whereas portfolio investment reached USD 140.3 billion, more than double the USD 67.0 billion recorded in 2024. As a result, the ratio of portfolio investment to GDP also rose sharply, from 3.6% (2024) to 7.5% (2025). The expansion of overseas investment leads to the accumulation of external assets and an increase in net external financial assets; over the long run this is positive in that it helps expand investment income receipts, enhance the buffer of foreign currency liquidity, and strengthen external payment capacity. At the same time, Korea’s recent portfolio investment has expanded somewhat steeply, with both its scale and its ratio to GDP overtaking those of Japan (USD 102.8 billion, 2.3% in 2025). 2026. 07. 16
BOK Issue Note Evaluation of the Economic Effects of People`s Livelihood Recovery Consumption Coupons [BOK Issue Note 2026-13] ① The People’s Livelihood Recovery Consumption Coupons were incorporated into the 2025 supplementary budget to stimulate household consumption and boost sales for small business owners, with KRW 13.522 trillion distributed to all citizens. In practice, around 70% of the coupons were issued through credit cards, while the remainder were provided in the form of Local Love Gift Certificates and prepaid cards. To evaluate the economic effects of the coupons, this paper analyzes their direct effects in terms of sales growth at eligible merchants and the stimulation of household consumption. First, we examine the sales-boosting effect using large-sclae credit card sales data from six card companies*(Local Love Gift Certificates and prepaid cards are excluded from the analysis). In addition, we assess the consumption-stimulating effect based on two-waveAugust 13-20, 2025(1st) and October 27-November 7, 2025(2nd) self-reported surveys**. 2026. 07. 08
Blog Does AI Adoption Improve Productivity? It has been nearly three years since ChatGPT launched. AI has already become an irreplaceable tool for many workers. It is no longer unusual to ask AI to draft a report or to use AI for data analysis. In fact, as of 2025, more than half of employed persons in Korea (51.8%) are using generative AI at work, and this pace is as much as eight times faster than the diffusion of the Internet in the past[Figure 1]. 2026. 07. 22
Speeches Governor Hyunsong Shin at the ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026 Governor Shin presented a paper titled "A unified ledger in practice: lessons from Project Hangang" at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2026. The video(Seesion 4, 1:07:48) can be accessed via the following link. 2026. 07. 01

Research Papers

Financial Stability Report Financial Stability Report (June 2026) - Please refer to the attached PDF file. - This is a translation prepared by the Bank's staff based on the original Korean text released on June ... 2026.08.31
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BOK Issue Note How Will Consumption Evolve in Regions Benefiting from the Semiconductor Boom?: Spillover Effects Examined Through Regional Microdata [BOK Issue Note 2026-20] 1. As the semiconductor industry sustains an unprecedented boom, expectations for its broader economic spillover effects are also rising. Indeed, Gros... 2026.08.31
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BOK Working Paper (in English) BOK Working Paper No.2026-14, Economic Shocks and Income Polarization under Quasi-Marketization: Evidence from North Korea Author : Yongshin Cho(Economic Research Institute, Economic Security Studies Team) This paper examines how adverse economic shocks reshape the inc... 2026.08.24
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BOK Regional Economic Report (BOK Golden Book) Regional Economic Report(July 2026) This is a condensed English version of the Regional Economic Report published in Korean on July 29, 2026. Regional economic conditions in the Regional... 2026.08.18
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BOK Issue Note What Makes the Current Terms-of-Trade Improvement Different? Real-Economy Spillovers from the Semiconductor Upturn [BOK Issue Note 2026-16] The Korean economy recorded strong GDP growth of 3.8% year on year in the first quarter of this year, supported by the semiconductor upturn. At the sa... 2026.08.04
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BOK Working Paper (in English) BOK Working Paper No.2026-13, Good Housing Booms, Bad Housing Booms: Classifying Local Housing-Market Episodes and Their Macroeconomic Consequences Author : Sangyup Choi(Yonsei University), Junghyuk Lee(Bank of Korea) How can we distinguish good housing booms from bad ones? We develop a high-freq... 2026.08.03
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BOK Issue Note Assessing Recent Labor Market Conditions Using Private Employment Estimates [BOK Issue Note 2026-1] ① Public employment—including senior employment programs and public‑administration employees— have increased steadily over the past several years. ② ... 2026.07.21
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BOK Issue Note The Effects of Overseas Investment and Investment Income on the Exchange Rate [BOK Issue Note 2026-15] 1.    Korea’s overseas investment has increased sharply in recent years, led by portfolio investment. In 2025, direct investment declined to... 2026.07.16
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BOK Issue Note Evaluation of the Economic Effects of People`s Livelihood Recovery Consumption Coupons [BOK Issue Note 2026-13] ① The People’s Livelihood Recovery Consumption Coupons were incorporated into the 2025 supplementary budget to stimulate household consumption an... 2026.07.08
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BOK Issue Note Asset Tokenization in Korea and Global Markets: Current Developments and Future Policy Challenges 1. The asset tokenization market-whereby rights to various financial and real assets such as loans, government bonds, money market funds (MMFs), ... 2026.07.08
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BOK Working Paper Paper (in Korean) BOK Working Paper No.2026-12, Spillover Effects of External Shocks through Cross-Country Transmission Channels: A Large Bayesian Global VAR Approach Author : Sunho Lee(Bank of Korea) This study constructs a Large Bayesian Global Vector Autoregression (LB-GVAR) model covering eight major economi... 2026.07.02
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Korea Economic Outlook Korea Economic Outlook (May 2026) In order to provide a detailed understanding of Korea's economic outlook, a translation of the Economic Outlook is now published quarterly. 2026.06.30
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Annual Reports 2025 Annual Report 1. This is an unofficial translation prepared by the Bank's staff based on the original Korean text released on March 27, 2026. 2. Contents  &... 2026.06.30
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Quarterly/Economic Analysis [Vol.32 No.2] Forcasting Household and Corporate Loan Delinquency Rates in the Banking Sector and Crisis Scenario Analysis Author: Eutteum Park(Bank of Korea), Kyu Ho Kang(Korea Univ.) This study develops a Large Bayesian VAR (LBVAR) model with 22 macro-financial var... 2026.06.30
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Quarterly/Economic Analysis [Vol.32 No.2] Mandatory External Audits, Disclosure Timeliness, and Re-disclosure Behavior of Public-Interest Corporations Author: Sangwha Shin(Chungnam National Univ.) This study exploits the 2020 introduction of mandatory external audits for public-interest corpora... 2026.06.30
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Quarterly/Economic Analysis [Vol.32 No.2] Cyclicality of Social Welfare Expenditure Author: Shinyae Noh(Seoul National Univ.), Chul-In Lee(Seoul National Univ.) To assess the income-smoothing capability of social welfare program... 2026.06.30
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Quarterly/Economic Analysis [Vol.32 No.2] Credit Deterioration and Insurance Policy Lapse Author: Song, Yunah(Korea Insurance Research Institute) This study examines how deteriorating credit conditions affect insurance lapse, using de... 2026.06.30
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BOK Working Paper (in English) BOK Working Paper No.2026-11, Large Zombies, Small Victims: Evidence on Congestion Effects from Population-Level Data Author : Kyeongtae Lee(Bank of Korea) Most studies on zombie firms focus on listed firms—which account for only a small fraction of the firm populati... 2026.06.30
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BOK Working Paper (in English) BOK Working Paper No.2026-10, Green Transition, Energy Substitution, and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a DSGE Model for Korea Author : Eunseong Ma(Yonsei University), Joonseok Oh(University of Southampton), Byung Goog Park(Bank of Korea), Kyounghoon Park(Bank of Korea) We st... 2026.06.30
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BOK Working Paper (in English) BOK Working Paper No.2026-9, Testing Spatial Interactions with Origin-side Heterogeneity Author : Shi Ryoung Chang(Bank of Korea) This paper proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for spatial interactions in the presence of origin-side ... 2026.06.30
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