1. Amid prolonged economic slowdown and forecasts that Korea’s growth in 2025 and 2026 will remain below its potential, house prices in Seoul have continued to rise–driven largely by the apartment–since the second half of last year, accompanied by a continued increase in household debt, heightening concerns over financial stability risks.
2. In such circumstances, interest rate cuts aimed at mitigating the economic slowdown could further increase the financial stability risk. Consequently, monetary policy alone cannot simultaneously achieve both macroeconomic and financial stability, making close coordination with macroprudential policy more necessary. This paper presents an effective policy mix of monetary and macroprudential policies in the context where the trade-off between economic growth and financial stability has intensified.
3. We first analyze the main drivers of Seoul apartment price fluctuations and find that economic conditions, housing supply–demand and market sentiment, and interest rates collectively influence price movements. Since June of last year, despite the downward pressure from the weak economy, supply–demand and market sentiment, along with interest rate have exerted the upward pressure, driving the continued rise in Seoul apartment prices.
4. Next, the tightening of macroprudential policy was found to be effective in curbing the rise in house prices and the growth of mortgage loans, while having only a limited impact on constraining economic growth. This suggests that more stringent macroprudential policy can partially offset the adverse impact of accommodative monetary policy on financial stability.
5. To explore an effective policy mix between monetary and macroprudential policies, we examine how the timing of macroprudential policy tightening affects its impact on financial stability based on model simulation. The results demonstrate that when macroprudential tightening precedes accommodative monetary policy, it is more effective in curbing the rise in house prices and the growth of household lending than when it follows.
6. Meanwhile, amid continued increases in house prices and household debt, implementing an interest rate cut without first strengthening macroprudential policy could be perceived as a weak policy commitment on the part of authorities to financial stability. Such a perception could fuel expectations for further house price rises, thereby amplifying the financial stability risks associated with monetary easing, while its positive effect on economic growth may be weaker than under normal circumstances.
7. In summary, during periods with concerns about economic slowdown and buildup of financial imbalances, close coordination between monetary and macroprudential policies is crucial. Implementing stronger macroprudential policy prior to interest rate cuts—rather than after— is considered to be a more effective policy mix.